Saturday, February 09, 2008

This seems like it ought to be news, but I'm really not sure it is:

To date, about 52 percent of those 3,253 delegates have been pledged in the voting process -- with Clinton and Obama roughly splitting them at 832 and 821 delegates a piece, according to the AP.

That means there are now only about 1,600 delegates left up for grabs in the remaining states and territories voting.

So, do the math. If they both have 820 plus pledged delegates so far, they'll need to win roughly 1,200 -- 75 percent -- of the remaining 1,600 delegates to win the nomination through actual voting.

In other words: Ain't gonna happen, barring a stunning scandal or some new crazy revelation. So, Clinton and Obama keep fighting this thing out, each accumulating a chunk of delegates, one of them holding a slight edge and both finishing the voting process with 1,600 or so delegates.

And then the super delegates decide this thing.
I don't think anyone's ever had a problem with the superdelegates deciding this thing, per se. Given that superdelegates make up a solid 20% of the total, the only way a candidate could win without them would be to win the popular vote by a pretty dramatic margin (you'd need about 62% of the pledged delegates to make a majority at the convention). And realistically, that's been off the table for a while. So the issue's not that superdelegates will make the decision; it's how they'll make the decision. If Obama comes in leading 52-48, and the superdelegates split 2:1 for Clinton, there could be a mutiny. But if Obama comes in leading 52-48, and the superdelegates split, say, 55-45 for Clinton (which would preserve Obama's overall lead), I don't think anyone will really mind.

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