Thursday, February 07, 2008

Based on a post at TPM, I thought it might be interesting to compare the states that each of the two Democrats won on Tuesday.

The numbers are below, but here are a few interesting highlights:
• Of the eight Super Tuesday states that Democrats won in the last two presidential elections, Clinton and Obama won four each (though Obama's wins were a bit stronger than Clinton's).
• Of the four Super Tuesday states that Democrats almost won in the last two presidential elections, Clinton and Obama won two each (though Clinton's wins were a bit stronger than Obama's).
• And of the ten Super Tuesday states that Democrats didn't even come close to thinking about the possibility of maybe one day competing to potentially win in the last two presidential elections, Clinton won three and Obama won seven (and generally by a landslide).

Now, granted, those numbers don't mean a lot. But if you're a pessimist, I think they could be read to suggest that Obama's real strength (relative to Clinton, anyway) is anchored in places that it's not going to matter one tiny little bit come November 4 (and thus that whatever momentum he gained two days ago is basically illusory with respect to the general).

On the other hand, if you're more of an optimist (as well as a person who thinks intrastate, extraparty similarities are strong), you could read those numbers to suggest that Obama has done a better job of winning over voters who are predisposed toward Republicanism.

I think this latter conclusion is actually the more likely of the two, though using these particular numbers to demonstrate it might be futile. But either way, it makes for an interesting chart.

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