Thursday, November 06, 2008

This is pretty wild:

Among the more unusual measures on this year’s ballots was one in Florida that would repeal an old clause in the state constitution that allows legislators to bar Asian immigrants from owning land. The repeal would be symbolic, as equal protection laws would prevent lawmakers from applying the ban. With 78 percent of precincts reporting just before 11 p.m. Tuesday, the vote was close, with 52 percent voting to preserve the clause.
Italics mine, to illustrate the fact that Floridians are out of their damn minds.

I thought it might be interesting to keep track of's projections during the last week of the campaign, in order to compare the progression to the eventual result. I'm sure that kind of historical data is available somewhere on the site, but I wasn't able to find it, so I'll make a note of it here. To be updated daily if I actually remember this between now and the election.

Popular VoteElectoral College
October 28, 200852.146.5348.2189.8
October 29, 200852.046.6344.1193.9
October 30, 200852.046.4346.5191.5
October 31, 200852.246.4349.7188.3
November 1, 200852.246.6344.0194.0
November 2, 200851.947.2332.9205.1
November 3, 200852.046.1346.5191.5
November 4, 200852.346.2348.6189.4

Update: They say races traditionally tighten up in the last week or so. I'm chalking up the November 2 numbers to that phenomenon.

Second update: Exact numbers aren't in yet, but we're getting close, and things are looking awfully good for Nate Silver (if anything, he may have been on the low end). The jury's still out on Missouri (McCain up by about 6,000), North Carolina (Obama up by about 14,000), and Omaha, Nebraska (which has one electoral vote that could go either way). Once those are in, I'll update this table to reflect the actual election results.

Post-election update: Not too shabby.

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

It's Excellular!

Sunday, November 02, 2008

This number-cruncher fellow says the networks will call the election for Obama at around 11pm on Tuesday (which is not-coincidentally also when he predicts they'll call Virginia and Pennsylvania). His methodology seems a little light, but it's a fun thing to think about all the same (and in his defense, he sounds a bit like Dr. Ashen, so that's fun).

My game-plan for Tuesday is to spend the evening flipping back and forth between PBS, MSNBC, and Comedy Central (with the occasional stop at CNN or FOX). On the web, I'll be keeping an eye on the nifty Daily Kos map, Hotline's blog, and the New York Times. Any other suggestions?

Update: Nate Silver says he'll be updating and live-blogging throughout the evening, so that plus the three sites above should cover about 98% of my web surfing Tuesday night.

Four things that have made me laugh in recent days: