Wednesday, February 28, 2007

The Hill's Aaron Blake notes the growing movement among Arkansas Republicans - and to be clear, "growing movement" is entirely my phrase; the actual article calls it something closer to "a couple of overexcited bloggers" - encouraging Gov. Mike Huckabee to abandon his presidential campaign in favor of making a run at Mark Pryor's Senate seat.

I'm of two minds on this one. On the one hand, I've mentioned before my general fear of Huckabee, and I admit that I'd like to see him off the national stage. And honestly, I don't think I'd mind having him as a member of the Senate: he's like Sam Brownback, only jovial.

But on the other hand, I'm not blind to the big-picture expected-value considerations here: [(the likelihood of Huckabee going to the White House) * (the crazy, crazy shit that he'd do the country if he got there)] vs. [(the likelihood of Huckabee going to the Capitol) * (the cost of a power-shift if the loss of Pryor's seat leads to the reversion of Senate control to the GOP)]. Given what I'd estimate to be the considerably greater chance he has to win a Senate race, I suppose I should probably be rooting for Huckabee to continue his White House run.

I tend to suspect, though, that the discussion is moot: considering the very real possibility that Pryor would beat him in the Senate race (Pryor's not fantastically popular, but neither is he a slouch), and further considering that if Huckabee abandons his presidential run only to lose a Senate campaign, his political career is all-but-tanked, I'd have to imagine that Huckabee's feelings about a plan like this one would be, at best, skeptical. Still, fun to think about.

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