Monday, August 30, 2004

New poll compilation for the major polls taken through August 30, 2004. My calculations give me this:

BushKerryNader
June 23, 200444.0044.335.33
July 25, 200444.1746.253.33
August 30, 200445.0046.222.78
Post-RNC (September 15, 2004?)???
(Most recent sources: ABC/WP, American Research Group, AP, CBS, CNN, FOXNews, Gallup, LAT, and Pew.)

So Bush picked up three quarters of a point, while Kerry stayed the same (and Nader lost a half). It's worth noting that of the nine* major polls used to get the compilation numbers above, none were outside the margin of error. Within the margin of error, Kerry led in six of the polls; CNN was tied; and Bush led by 3 in the LAT and by 1 in Gallup.

* - National polling has fallen a bit out of favor (predictably), so new numbers aren't coming out with the frequency they had been. If you throw in the results of a few smaller (ICR and Marist) and older (Newsweek and Zogby) polls, Kerry holds fairly steady at 46.31 and Bush drops three quarters of a point to 44.15.

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