New poll compilation for the major polls taken through August 30, 2004. My calculations give me this:
Bush | Kerry | Nader | |
June 23, 2004 | 44.00 | 44.33 | 5.33 |
July 25, 2004 | 44.17 | 46.25 | 3.33 |
August 30, 2004 | 45.00 | 46.22 | 2.78 |
Post-RNC (September 15, 2004?) | ? | ? | ? |
So Bush picked up three quarters of a point, while Kerry stayed the same (and Nader lost a half). It's worth noting that of the nine* major polls used to get the compilation numbers above, none were outside the margin of error. Within the margin of error, Kerry led in six of the polls; CNN was tied; and Bush led by 3 in the LAT and by 1 in Gallup.
* - National polling has fallen a bit out of favor (predictably), so new numbers aren't coming out with the frequency they had been. If you throw in the results of a few smaller (ICR and Marist) and older (Newsweek and Zogby) polls, Kerry holds fairly steady at 46.31 and Bush drops three quarters of a point to 44.15.
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