Wednesday, March 12, 2008

By way of follow-up to that delegate post from last week: Obama won Wyoming 61-38, and won Mississippi 59-39. Not including Mississippi, the New York Times estimates Obama's pledged-delegate lead to be 1,348-1,211. Assuming the Mississippi delegates split 19-14 (which seems like a safe margin, given the popular vote), that'd put us at 1,367-1,225. The remaining states:

  • PA: 181 delegates (151 pledged, 30 unpledged)
  • GU: 8 delegates (3 pledged, 5 unpledged)
  • IN: 79 delegates (66 pledged, 13 unpledged)
  • NC: 110 delegates (91 pledged, 19 unpledged)
  • WV: 37 delegates (26 pledged, 11 unpledged)
  • KY: 55 delegates (47 pledged, 8 unpledged)
  • OR: 62 delegates (48 pledged, 14 unpledged)
  • PR: 4 delegates (3 pledged, 1 unpledged)
  • MT: 23 delegates (15 pledged, 8 unpledged)
  • SD: 22 delegates (14 pledged, 8 unpledged)
Together, that's a total of 464 remaining pledged delegates. In order to head into the convention with a pledged-delegate tie,* Clinton would have to win the remaining ten contests 65-35.

Just sayin'.

* - Assuming the pledged delegates split exactly according to the popular vote, which they will not (though they should be relatively close).

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