According to this post from the Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire (a post that I only saw because Wake-Up Call linked to it), Comedy Central's InDecider blog actually broke the news of Rumsfeld's resignation about twelve hours before it was anywhere mainstream. Go figure.
Friday, November 10, 2006
Thursday, November 09, 2006
So, as you may have heard, George Allen conceded (snivellingly) at about 3:00 this afternoon, giving the Democrats both houses of Congress for the first time since November 8, 1994. Lieberman will caucus with the Democrats, thank the Jesus -- and in honesty, I never really thought he wouldn't. But to cut and paste from an email I sent this afternoon:
[In] choosing not to step aside and let Lamont take the seat, Lieberman put himself before the party (with, to read it most charitably, "the people of Connecticut’s" interests at heart). And while there’s not necessarily anything wrong with that, it had the potential to become worrisome when he became the swing vote. Given his willingness to put self (and maybe Connecticut) before party, it was not a 100%-sure-thing that’d he’d say to the Republicans knocking on his door, "No, I don’t want [nearly any committee chairmanship]. I’d rather remain a Democrat." That's what he'd probably say, mind, but there there was at least a chance that instead he’d say, "If I remain a Democrat, I’m just a conservative, loyal member of the caucus [he’ll be chairman of the Homeland Security committee]. But if I become a Republican, I’m a superstar with any chairmanship I want, which will enable me to do more good formyselfthe people of Connecticut."
He swears he’ll caucus with the Democrats, and I now believe him. And honestly, even at my lowest point, I would have put the odds that he’d caucus with the Democrats at around 2:1. But with, say, Ned Lamont, those odds would have been 2:0.
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Mike
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7:21 PM
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Wednesday, November 08, 2006
At around 9:00, the AP called Virginia for Jim Webb. Republicans "in touch" with the Allen campaign say that Allen plans to concede.
I think I just fainted.
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Mike
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9:30 PM
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Labeled: Election
Some wrap-up notes:
- Montana's been called for Tester, embiggening the odds that control of the Senate will be decided by a crotchety old state court judge in Richmond. Someone better keep an eye on Katherine Harris: she's got a lot of free time now, and this is what she's good at. (Note: The Hotline's Marc Ambinder is reporting that "senior Republican officials and White House aides" think Virginia is lost, and will pressure Allen to concede.)
- Steny Hoyer wants the Majority Leader's office.
- Denny Hastert doesn't want the Minority Leader's office. (But Boehner does.)
- There was also something about Rumsfeld; not sure what it was....
- From The Hotline's extensive collection of election scorecards comes a breakdown of the celebrity-guest effectiveness of the various White House '08 Democrats. In order of efficiency:
- Obama, 80.4% (37 races won, 9 races lost)
- Biden, 76.9% (20-6)
- Edwards, 75.7% (44-14)
- Kerry, 71.6% (58-23)
- HRC, 70.0% (28-12)
- Feingold, 68.8% (11-5)
- Dodd, 68.0% (17-8)
- Vilsack, 58.3% (14-10)
- Richardson, 57.1% (24-18)
- Bayh, 54.2% (13-11)
- Clark, 42.9% (12-16)
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Mike
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8:26 PM
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Labeled: Election
For a quick summary of last night's results, check out On Call's headline-style wrap-up.
(And note: there's been no announcement from Montana yet, but Tester's margin has narrowed to 2,000 votes.)
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Mike
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6:49 AM
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Labeled: Election
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
Just after 8:00, CBS called Pennsylvania (Casey) and Ohio (Brown). That's two of the six. (Though it's worth noting that none of the other networks are calling those two yet.)
8:35: MSNBC calls Pennsylvania for Casey.
8:45: PBS calls Pennsylvania for Casey, too. Way to be, Pittsburgh!
9:00: On Call reports "various calls" (including MSNBC and PBS, the two I'm keeping an eye on) for Menendez in New Jersey (which is not one of The Six, but was pretty competitive at the end, so it's notable). Also, CNN jumps on the Casey bandwagon, and calls Minnesota Senate for Amy Klobuchar.
9:05: CNN has clearly spent at least one hundred million dollars on stand-up desks and flat-panel monitors, and they would like everyone to know it.
9:10: With 68% reporting, George Allen is up by 4,000 votes. Also, I think Jeff Greenfield's job title tonight is "sidekick."
9:15: CNN and MSNBC project Connecticut for Lieberman. I sure hope he's a Democrat.
9:20: MSNBC projects that Ben Cardin has beaten noted crazy-person Michael Steele (Maryland, like New Jersey, is not one of The Six, but was close enough to bear watching). And On Call reports that John Yarmuth has unseated Anne Northrup in KY-03, which is (I believe) the second House pickup of the night.
9:27: CNN projects Rhode Island for Sheldon Whitehouse. That's three of six, baby!
9:33: CNN projects IN-02 for Joe Donnelly, making the House Democrats +3.
9:46: With 82% reporting, George Allen is up by 27,000 votes. Webb insists everything's okay (the 18% still waiting to be counted are all NoVa, he says), but I'm starting to get a little nervous.
9:57: Chris Matthews is apparently as proud of the fact that he knows the phrase "right now" as CNN is proud that it has one trillion billion dollars' worth of flat-panel televisions.
10:00: Rick Santorum concedes.
10:10: On Call is projecting that Paul Hodes has beaten Charles Bass in NH-02, and Chris Murphy has beaten Nancy Johnson in CT-05. That's +5 for the House Democrats (assuming I haven't missed any).
10:12: With 89% reporting, Allen's up by 24,000 votes. Sheesh.
11:05: A whole wave of House projections in the last hour. Democrats have picked up CT-02, FL-22, IN-08, NC-11, OH-18, PA-7, and PA-10. If my math is right, that puts the House at 220R-215D, putting the Democrats three seats away from a majority.
11:08: Hey, hey, hey. CNN projects NY-20, IN-09, and AZ-08 for the Democrats. You can do the math.
11:09: CNN projects that the Democrats will take the House.
11:14: With 96.60% reporting, George Allen is up by 13,000 votes, or 0.59%. Anything closer than 0.50% will trigger an automatic recount, so Webb's really counting on some last-minute help from the eighty or so precincts left.
11:17: Still waiting on projections from Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri, Montana, and Arizona. Whichever party takes three of those five will control the Senate.
11:37: The Washington Post has apparently withdrawn its Maryland projection. I'm not buying it, though: no way does Michael Steele win that race.
11:41: With 97.42% reporting, Allen's lead is down to about 5,000 votes, or 0.21%. With a total of only sixty precincts remaining, there's basically no way this doesn't go to a recount.
12:14: CNN is reporting that Webb has taken the lead in votes, but I'm going to stick with the Virginia Board of Elections, since that's what I've been watching all night. With 99.18% reporting (twenty precincts left), Allen still has a 1,900-vote lead.
12:44: MSNBC calls Tennessee for Corker. Democrats have to go 3-for-3 in the states that are left.
12:52: Still watching:
- Missouri: 69% reporting; Talent (R) 49.84; McCaskill (D) 46.76
- Montana: 31% reporting; Burns (R) 41.10; Tester (D) 56.72
- Virginia: 99.26% reporting; Allen (R) 49.36; Webb (D) 49.44
1:09: The Terminator was reelected as governor of Culleyfornia.
1:28: Still watching...
- Missouri: 81% reporting; Talent (R) 48.01; McCaskill (D) 48.70
- Montana: 52% reporting; Burns (R) 45.42; Tester (D) 53.04
- Virginia: 99.47% reporting; Allen (R) 49.36; Webb (D) 49.43
2:27: Brian Schweitzer announces that we'll have a final call on Montana within the hour. Thirty-minute drumroll, please....
2:48: MSNBC just cut to Norah O'Donnell so that she could explain that if the Democrats manage to pick up only one of the remaining two Senate seats, as opposed to both, the Senate will deadlock at 50-50 and Dick Cheney would have to break the tie. Thanks, Norah.
3:34: Brian Schweitzer is clearly a liar.
3:42: Montana has already started to recount votes. They continue to insist, though, that a result is coming soon.
3:55: After a brief phone conversation with a local news reporter in Helena, Chris Matthews, Bob Shrum, and the rest of the talking heads (or "babbloons," an entertaining word that I just coined [a portmanteau of "babbling" and "baboons"; I may be getting a bit punchy]) are "about 90%" convinced that the Democrats are going to get The Six they needed.
4:40: Still no decision in Montana, and they're saying now that they won't have anything before 7:00. I'm guessing I'll still be awake at that point, but in the interest of getting some actual work done, I think I'm going to call an end to the live-blogging. Bonsoir, mes amis.
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Mike
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8:30 PM
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Labeled: Election
Take a look at this picture of the Clintons voting this morning. Notice that they're standing in line.
Now, it's not that I think the Clintons should be automatically bumped to the front as soon as they walk in the door. But if you're standing there and you notice that the two people behind you are Bill and Hillary Clinton, how do you not say to them, "You guys can go ahead"?
Posted by
Mike
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7:30 PM
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An exhortation to the readers: as Richard III said to Macbeth, "Get thee to a votery!"
(Polls close at seven here in Virginia, and at eight for most of the rest of the east coast. If you haven't voted yet, you ought to go do it now. But remember this: every time you vote Republican, God kills a kitten.)
Posted by
Mike
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5:08 PM
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Labeled: Election
For the record, the sites I've been checking most often today:
Posted by
Mike
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5:01 PM
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Labeled: Election
A couple of last minute horse-race primers:
- At the Post, Dan Balz and David Broder have produced an exhaustive rundown of the competitive races in all fifty states.
- And at the Times, the Caucus blog has posted a viewers' guide for tomorrow.
(Also, check out the Washington Post's Crystal Ball Contest. 11 former champions return to defend their honor. Tune in to watch Mary Matalin lose!)
Posted by
Mike
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12:41 AM
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Labeled: Election
Monday, November 06, 2006
Two tangentially-related* articles from today's New York Times:
- The first, an op-ed by the chairman of NYU's sociology department, proposes a mandatory runoff for any election in which the result cannot be determined with at least 99% statistical certainty (in other words, if one million people vote, the winning candidate's margin of victory would have to exceed 1,300 votes in order to avoid a runoff; if five million voted, the margin of victory would have to exceed 3,000). It's an interesting idea, and he explains it well. And, Christ: anything's better than leaving it up to Scalia.
- The second, an editorial, notes that this year, for the first time in recent memory, the New York Times will endorse not a single Republican. Makes you feel all warm and fuzzy inside, doesn't it?
Posted by
Mike
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11:37 PM
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Labeled: Op-Eds
Why people who don't like polls don't like polls:
Virginia Senate
- Gallup: Allen, 49-46.
- Mason-Dixon: Webb, 46-45.
- Gallup: Tester, 50-41.
- Mason-Dixon: Tie, 47-47.
- Gallup: Whitehouse, 48-45.
- Mason-Dixon: Chafee, 46-45.
For the record, my predictions: Webb 50-48; Tester 51-49; Whitehouse 51-48. (And thanks to Wake-Up Call for the numbers.)
Posted by
Mike
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3:21 PM
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